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Commentaire/ bubble economy
Message de sushis posté le 20-10-2009 à 22:16:27 (S | E | F)
Je prépare les concours en école de commerce (HEC notamment) et un exercice étant de répondre en 200 mots à une question de compréhension au sujet d'un texte tiré de The Economist, je commence à m'y exercer (ne nous inquiétez pas il me reste encore deux ans !).
Merci d'avance pour ceux qui prendront quelques temps pour souligner les fautes.
Le voici :
Is the China a bubble economy? (C'est moi qui ai inventé la question par rapport à texte trouvé sur le site de The Economist.)
Because of the raise of lending in China, in the purpose of supporting demand, not followed by a raise of China GDP, some people fear that China economy is a bubble economy. This fear are exaggerated for four main raison. First, price don't raise very fast. Neither China's stock nor property market seem very abnormal. Second, mortgage are not very commune and the average loan-to-value is less than 50%. So a raise follow by a crash should not be as terrible that in North America for example. Third, this raise of lending could be efficient. In that case the suspicious of bubble will become less important. Lastly, China's government has always been more afraid of bubble that many of other countries from the West. In that way China demand higher down-payment and higher provisions from bank that many of their western counterparts.
But because of the ample liquidity, the low inflation, the strong growth and the China inability to raise interest rates, there are medium-term risks. Yuan is tied to dollar for support Chinese exporters. But because of the America's weak economy, their monetary conditions will stay very lax. In that case if Yuan stay tied to Dollar, a bubble can happen.
The solution is to increase the Yuan, it will not be easy but better than doing nothing.
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Modifié par lucile83 le 24-10-2009 14:05
titre
Message de sushis posté le 20-10-2009 à 22:16:27 (S | E | F)
Je prépare les concours en école de commerce (HEC notamment) et un exercice étant de répondre en 200 mots à une question de compréhension au sujet d'un texte tiré de The Economist, je commence à m'y exercer (ne nous inquiétez pas il me reste encore deux ans !).
Merci d'avance pour ceux qui prendront quelques temps pour souligner les fautes.
Le voici :
Is the China a bubble economy? (C'est moi qui ai inventé la question par rapport à texte trouvé sur le site de The Economist.)
Because of the raise of lending in China, in the purpose of supporting demand, not followed by a raise of China GDP, some people fear that China economy is a bubble economy. This fear are exaggerated for four main raison. First, price don't raise very fast. Neither China's stock nor property market seem very abnormal. Second, mortgage are not very commune and the average loan-to-value is less than 50%. So a raise follow by a crash should not be as terrible that in North America for example. Third, this raise of lending could be efficient. In that case the suspicious of bubble will become less important. Lastly, China's government has always been more afraid of bubble that many of other countries from the West. In that way China demand higher down-payment and higher provisions from bank that many of their western counterparts.
But because of the ample liquidity, the low inflation, the strong growth and the China inability to raise interest rates, there are medium-term risks. Yuan is tied to dollar for support Chinese exporters. But because of the America's weak economy, their monetary conditions will stay very lax. In that case if Yuan stay tied to Dollar, a bubble can happen.
The solution is to increase the Yuan, it will not be easy but better than doing nothing.
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Modifié par lucile83 le 24-10-2009 14:05
titre
Réponse: Commentaire/ bubble economy de ariette, postée le 21-10-2009 à 09:55:57 (S | E)
Is the China a bubble economy? (C'est moi qui ai inventé la question par rapport à texte trouvé sur le site de The Economist.)
Because of the raise of lending (rate) in China, in the purpose of (so as to, in order to) support demand, not followed by a raise of China GDP, some people fear that China economy is a bubble economy. This fear are exaggerated for four main raisons. First, prices don't rise very fast. Neither China's stock nor property market seem very abnormal. Secondly, mortgage is not very commune and the average loan-to-value is less than 50%. So a raise follow by a crash should not be as terrible that in North America for example. Third, this raise of lending- could be efficient. In that case the suspicious of bubble will become less important. Lastly, China's government has always been more afraid of bubble that many
But because of the ample liquidity, the low inflation, the strong growth and China’s inability to raise interest rates, there are medium-term risks. Yuan is tied to dollar for support Chinese exporters. But because of America's weak economy, their monetary conditions will stay/remain very lax. In that case if Yuan stay (remains) tied to Dollar, a bubble can happen.
The solution is to increase the Yuan; it will not be easy but better to doing nothing.
bon courage dans votre préparation
Réponse: Commentaire/ bubble economy de sushis, postée le 24-10-2009 à 13:55:13 (S | E)
Is China a bubble economy?
Because of the increase of lending (ce n'est pas une augmentation du taux de prêt, mais juste une augmentation du nombre de prêt) in China, in order to support demand, not followed by an increase of China GDP, some people fear that China economy is a bubble economy. This fear is exaggerated for four main reasons. First, prices don't rise very fast. Neither China's stock nor property market seem very abnormal. Secondly, mortgage are not very common and the average loan-to-value is less than 50%. So an increase followed by a crash should not be as terrible that (je ne vois pas quoi mettre à la place de that) in North America for example. Third, this increase of lending could be efficient. In that case the suspicion of bubble will become less important. Lastly, China's government has always been more afraid of bubble that many countries from the West. In that way (that’s the reason why?) (je voulais dire plutôt dire "ainsi", comment faire ?) China demand (je veut dire "La Chine demande", qu'ai-je mal traduit ?) higher down-payment and higher provisions from banks that (idem que plus haut, je ne vois pas quoi mettre à la place de "that") many of their western counterparts.
But because of the ample liquidity, the low inflation, the strong growth and China’s inability to increase interest rates, there are medium-term risks. Yuan is tied to dollar to support Chinese exporters. But because of America's weak economy, their monetary conditions will stay/remain very lax. In that case if Yuan remains tied to Dollar, a bubble can happen.
The solution is to increase the Yuan; it will not be easy but better to doing nothing.
Merci beaucoup pour les corrections ! Ce qui me pose le plus problème sont mes "that", je ne voit pas pourquoi ils sont faux.
Réponse: Commentaire/ bubble economy de lucile83, postée le 24-10-2009 à 14:04:05 (S | E)
Hello,
as terrible that (je ne vois pas quoi mettre à la place de that) in North
revoir le comparatif d'égalité
that’s the reason why?) (je voulais dire plutôt dire "ainsi", comment faire ?)
un double clic sur le mot et vous obtenez WR,un dictionnaire en ligne
China demand (je veut dire "La Chine demande",
présent 3e pers du sing???
higher provisions from banks that (idem que plus haut,
revoir le comparatif de supériorité
Best wishes.
Réponse: Commentaire/ bubble economy de sushis, postée le 24-10-2009 à 16:15:26 (S | E)
D'accord. Ça m'a fait revoir quelques notions de bases bien utiles.
Merci beaucoup !
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Modifié par lucile83 le 24-10-2009 21:13
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